Market Pulse reads the macro tape through three institutional frameworks: Dalio’s growth / inflation regime quadrant, Murphy’s cross-asset intermarket analysis, and the IMF / BIS event-transmission playbook. It diagnoses the current regime and traces how specific events propagate across equities, rates, FX, and commodities.
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Driven
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The macro environment is placed in one of four quadrants defined by growth direction × inflation direction — Goldilocks (growth up, inflation down), Inflationary Growth (both up), Stagflation (growth down, inflation up), and Recession (both down). Each quadrant maps to distinct asset preferences, so the regime call anchors everything that follows.
Cross-asset relationships reveal what the market is actually pricing, not just what the headline index is doing. Dollar strengthening with falling commodities signals deflation; bonds leading stocks signals late-cycle tightening; rising VIX with widening credit spreads signals stress. When cross-asset signals conflict with the tape, the cross-asset read wins.
Events propagate to asset prices through five channels — interest rate, credit, asset price, exchange rate, and expectations. Not all channels apply to every event: a rate cut typically runs through interest rate, asset price, and expectations; a tariff runs through exchange rate and expectations. The 2–3 most relevant channels carry the analysis, the rest are noted and set aside.
Regime and intermarket signals are anchored to breadth (advance / decline), leadership (which sectors lead), volume (confirms or questions the trend), and key catalysts — closing with one or two actionable takeaways and the next data point to watch.